Solar Cycle 25 Has Peaked. Here's Why That's Actually Good News for 40m and 20m Operators.

 

  

  If you've been chasing the high bands lately — 10 meters, 15 meters — you may have noticed something: they're not as reliable as they were a year ago. That's not your antenna. That's the solar cycle.

  Solar Cycle 25 peaked at the end of 2024, exceeding all original predictions in intensity. In May 2026, we're roughly eighteen months past that peak and on the descending side. The operators who built their entire HF strategy around

  10m openings are now dealing with increasingly unpredictable conditions. But for those of us who primarily work 40 and 20 meters, the picture looks different — and arguably better.

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  What Actually Happened with Cycle 25

  

  The official NOAA Solar Cycle Progression data tells the story clearly. Cycle 25 was predicted to be a moderate cycle. It wasn't. Sunspot numbers significantly exceeded forecasts, and the peak arrived ahead of schedule, producing some

   of the best HF propagation since the early 2010s.

  That window — roughly 2023 through late 2024 — was exceptional for the high bands. 10 meters was open for intercontinental contacts on a near-daily basis. 15 meters was reliable and productive. Operators who hadn't heard those bands

  alive in a decade came back to find them transformed.

  That phase is now behind us. The cycle is declining, and the high bands are reflecting that decline in real time.

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  The Shift That Benefits 40m and 20m

  

  Here's what the declining phase of a solar cycle actually means for band conditions — and it's more nuanced than "everything gets worse."

  As solar flux decreases, the F2 layer loses some of its daytime energy. The high bands — 10m and 15m — become increasingly dependent on sporadic-E and other less predictable mechanisms. But 20 meters remains an excellent DX band

  throughout the declining years of a cycle. Its lower frequency requires less ionospheric support, and the F2 layer still provides reliable skip for transatlantic and intercontinental paths well into solar minimum.

  40 meters benefits in a different way. As operators abandon 10m and 15m due to unreliable conditions, many migrate to 20m and 40m. Activity on these bands increases. Combined with 40m's natural evening characteristics — the D layer

  disappears after sunset, opening the band for DX — the coming years actually represent a sweet spot for operators whose primary bands are 40 and 20.

  I operate mainly on 40m and 20m, in the evenings. The contact that stands out most — a Chinese station received clearly at over 11,000 kilometers on 20 watts — happened during a period of good solar conditions. That kind of path

  doesn't disappear overnight as the cycle declines. It becomes more selective, more dependent on timing and band choice, but it remains achievable.

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  What to Expect in the Coming Years

  The declining phase of Solar Cycle 25 will unfold over the next several years, with solar minimum projected sometime around 2029-2030. Based on previous cycles, here's what that trajectory looks like for HF operators:

  10 meters: Increasingly unreliable for DX. Sporadic-E openings in summer remain possible, but the reliable daily openings of 2023-2024 are gone for this cycle.

  15 meters: Similar pattern, though it holds useful conditions longer into the decline than 10m.

  20 meters: The workhorse band of the declining cycle. Remains open for DX, attracts more activity as higher bands close. Evening paths to Asia and North America remain productive.

  40 meters: Increasingly valuable. The evening window for DX on 40m will be reliable for years to come. As more operators discover that 20m and 40m deliver consistent results while 10m and 15m disappoint, activity on these bands will

  continue to grow.

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  The Operating Strategy That Makes Sense Now

  

  The operators who adjusted to post-peak conditions quickly are the ones finding the most satisfaction on HF right now. The strategy isn't complicated:

  Stop chasing 10 meters unless you have a specific reason. Check it opportunistically, especially around midday and during summer months when sporadic-E can produce surprising openings, but don't build your schedule around it.

  Invest your time in 20m and 40m evenings. These bands reward consistent operation. Propagation on 40m after sunset in Europe provides reliable paths into Asia and the Middle East. 20m in the early evening covers North and South

  America. Neither of these paths requires peak solar conditions to be productive.

  Log your contacts. The declining phase produces more variable conditions than the peak — some evenings will surprise you with excellent propagation, others will disappoint. Keeping a log helps identify the patterns that work from your

   location and antenna setup.

  The solar cycle giveth and the solar cycle taketh away. Cycle 25 gave us two exceptional years on the high bands. What it's leaving behind — a productive, active 20m and 40m for the next several years — is a different kind of good.

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  This article was written with the assistance of an AI writing program. Solar cycle data referenced from NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (swpc.noaa.gov).